Franz Beard: Thoughts of the Day

THOUGHTS OF THE DAY; FEBRUARY 6, 2019

WILL THE GATORS CRACK THE RECRUITING TOP TEN?

Do you remember the doom and gloom predictions for Florida football recruiting of just a couple of months ago? Well, how does a top ten class sound? That’s entirely possible today as football recruiting is all but wrapped up with anywhere from one to four letters of intent getting faxed in to Dan Mullen and his staff. A single 4-star recruit likely moves the Gators to a 10th place finish in the final recruiting rankings and two could move UF as high as #8.

But before you get too hung up on final rankings, understand this. Mullen is getting the guys he wants. Oh, he’ll look back at a couple of misses and maybe wonder what might have been with a little bit different approach, but Mullen takes the approach that he wants guys who want to be Gators. This class will be made up of guys who want to be Florida Gators.

I’m not the recruiting expert (Jason Higdon owns that title) but I do follow it and here are my National Signing Day predictions. I do reserve the right to roll snake eyes but I don’t think I will.

1. Kaiir Elam (6-1, 182, North Palm Beach, FL The Benjamin School): 4-star CB. FLORIDA
2. Khris Bogle (6-4, 215, Fort Lauderdale, FL Cardinal Gibbons): 4-star DE. FLORIDA
3. Charles Moore (6-4, 268, Louisville, MS): 4-star DE. FLORIDA
4. Mark Antony-Richards (6-1, 195, West Palm Beach, FL Wellington): 4-star Athlete. AUBURN

I believe Elam is rock solid and Bogle will flip from Alabama. I know everyone is saying Moore to Auburn, but a couple of friends who are Mississippi State boosters seem to think Mullen will pull this off. I think Antony-Richards will struggle with his decision but go with Auburn.

20 YEARS OF FLORIDA FOOTBALL ATTRITION

Attrition. It’s a dirty word when it comes to football recruiting. Coaches don’t want to talk about it. They certainly don’t want to tell kids that there is an almost 30% chance they aren’t going to be around at their school by the time they are seniors whether it’s by transfer, dismissal or academics, but attrition is an important part of the recruiting process. NCAA rules allow 85 on scholarship for one year but those same rules allow 25 to be signed in any year and with some early enrollees counting backward in years that 25 weren’t signed, it’s possible to sign 28-30 or even more. Without attrition, the numbers would never work out.

Since today is National Signing Day and nearly every Division I school will be completing its recruiting classes for 2019, it’s important to understand that in a typical class 7-8 won’t be around in four years. Urban Meyer once explained it to me like this: “You can sign 25 but realistically, you hope 17 will stick … five times 17 equals 85.” So take a good look at the kids UF signs this year. If UF winds up with 17 on the roster four years from now, it has probably been a good class.

Here is a look at Florida’s recruiting classes from 1999-2018:

1999 (Signed 22; 8 didn’t pan out): Tony Charles, DT (transferred); Elgin Hicks, WR (transferred); Chris Stephens, QB (transferred); Roy Williams, DT (did not qualify); Roderick Royal, LB (transferred); Marshall Schaap, TE (transferred); Todd Poitier, LB (transferred); Keiwan Ratliff (did not qualify)

2000 (Signed 30; 24 didn’t pan out): Reggie Vickers, WR (transferred); Kevin Deaton, OG (transferred); Earnest Smith (transferred); Santonio Thomas, DT (did not qualify); Chad Tidwell, OT (transferred); Kennard Ellis, LB (did not qualify)

2001 (Signed 17; 6 didn’t pan out): Eraste Autin, RB (died); Wesley Bryant, OT (transferred); Larry Kendrick, WR (transferred); Sylvester McGrew, DE (transferred); Antoine Sharpe, WR (transferred); Dallas Baker, WR (did not qualify)

2002 (Signed 22; 5 didn’t pan out): Taurean Charles (dismissed); Ryan Carter, OG (medical hardship); Jimtavis Walker, RB (transferred); Patrick Dosh, QB (transferred); MacKenzie Pierre, DE (transferred)

2003: (Signed 26; 8 didn’t pan out): Skyler Thornton, RB (transferred); Tranell Morant, DE (transferred); Howard Lingard, LB (transferred); Julian Riley, DT (transferred); Michael Hill, DT (transferred); Johnny Dingle, LB (did not qualify); Marcus Thomas, DT (dismissed); Justin Midgett, QB (transferred)

2004 (Signed 23; 10 didn’t pan out): McIntosh Nicolas, CB (did not qualify); Derrick McPhearson, WR (released from his LOI); Michael Brown, DT (dismissed); Dawayne Grace, CB (transferred); Markus Manson, RB (transferred); Mike Mangold, DE (Quit football before enrolling); Branden Daniel, DT (transferred); Dane Guthrie, TE (transferred); Markell Thompson, TE (medical hardship); Eric Rutledge, FB/LB (dismissed)

2005 (Signed 17; 12 didn’t pan out): Nyan Boateng, WR (transferred); Jon Demps, LB (dismissed); Dorian Munroe (medical hardship); Eddie Haupt, C (medical hardship); Eric Sledge, WR (transferred); Brian Ellis, TE (did not qualify); Daryl Gresham Jr., LB (dismissed); Ronnie Wilson, OG (dismissed); Simon Codrington, OT (medical hardship); Kalvin Baker, LB (transferred); Avery Atkins, CB (transferred; died); Josh Portis, QB (transferred)

2006 (Signed 24; 9 didn’t pan out): Corey Hobbs, DT (medical hardship); Trent Pupello, TE (transferred); Bryan Thomas, S (medical hardship/transferred); Jamar Hornsby, S (dismissed); Jarred Fayson, WR (transferred); Mon Williams, RB (transferred); Jim Barrie, OT (medical hardship); Chevon Walker, RB (transferred); Jacques Rickerson, CB (dismissed)

2007 (Signed 29; 9 didn’t pan out): Cam Newton, QB (dismissed/transferred); Jerimy Finch, S (transferred); John Brown, DT (transferred); Bo Williams, RB (transferred); Bryan Waggener, QB (transferred); John Jones, LB (transferred); Paul Wilson, WR (medical hardship); Steve Wilks, LB (medical hardship); Torrey Davis, DT (transferred)

2008 (Signed 22; 8 didn’t pan out): Matt Patchan, OT (transferred); Janoris Jenkins, CB (dismissed); Dee Finley, S (did not qualify); Brendan Beal, LB (transferred); T.J. Lawrence, WR (transferred); Adrian Bushell, WR (transferred); Byran Jones, DT (transferred); T.J. Pridemore, FB (medical hardship)

2009 (Signed 18; 4 didn’t pan out): Gary Brown, DT (dismissed); Nick Alajajian, OT (transferred); Desmond Parks, TE (transferred); Kedric Johnson, DE (medical hardship); Dee Finley, S (dismissed)

2010 (Signed 28; 13 didn’t pan out): Josh Shaw, S (transferred); Chris Dunkley, WR (transferred); Chris Martin, DE (dismissed); Gerald Christian, TE (transferred); Johnathan Dowling, S (transferred); Leon Orr, DT (dismissed); Cody Riggs, CB (transferred); Adrian Coxson, WR (transferred); Lynden Trail, DE (transferred); Jordan Haden, S (transferred); Michael McFarland, TE (transferred); Robert Clark, WR (transferred); Tyler Murphy, QB (transferred)

2011 (Signed 19; 10 didn’t pan out): Jeff Driskel, QB (transferred); Jacoby Brissett, QB (transferred); A.C. Leonard, TE (transferred); Mike Blakely, RB (transferred); JaJuan Story, WR (transferred); Javares McRoy, WR (transferred); Graham Stewart, LB (transferred); De’Ante Saunders, S (transferred); Chris Johnson, S (transferred); Tommy Jordan, OG (transferred)

2012 (Signed 22; 7 didn’t pan out): Jessamen Dunker, OG (dismissed); Kent Taylor, TE (transferred); Colin Thompson, TE (transferred); Rhaheim Ledbetter, S (transferred); Quinteze Williams, DE (transferred); Jafar Mann, DT (transferred); Skyler Mornhinweg, QB (transferred)

2013 (Signed 28; 7 didn’t pan out): Alvin Bailey, WR (transferred); Jay-Nard Bostwick (transferred); Adam Lane, RB (transferred); Marqui Hawkins, WR (transferred); Max Staver, QB (transferred); Octavious Jackson, OG (transferred); Trevon Young, OT (transferred)

2014 (Signed 24; 11 didn’t pan out): Gerald Willis, DE (transferred); Will Grier, QB (transferred); Thomas Holley, DT (transferred); Treon Harris, QB (transferred); J.C. Jackson, WR (transferred); Nolan Kelleher, OG (transferred); C.J. Worton, WR (transferred); Travaris Dorsey, OG (transferred); Justus Reed, DE (transferred); Deiondre Porter, CB (dismissed); Drew Sarvary, OT (quit football)

2015 (Signed 21; 8 didn’t pan out): Jordan Cronkrite, RB (transferred); Daniel Imatorbhebhe, TE (transferred); Brandon Sandifer, OG (transferred); Camrin Knight, TE (transferred); Kalif Jackson, WR (transferred); Richerd Desir-Jones, DT (transferred); D’Anfernee McGriff, ATH (did not qualify); Chris Williamson, CB (transferred)

2016 (Signed 25; 2 didn’t pan out): Jordan Smith, DE (transferred); McArthur Burnett, CB (transferred)

2017 (Signed 23; 5 didn’t pan out): James Robinson, WR (transferred); Daquon Green, WR (transferred); Kadeem Telfort, OT (transferred); Adarius Lemons, RB (transferred); Jake Allen, QB (transferred)

2018 (Signed 20; 2 didn’t pan out): Justin Watkins, WR (dismissed); Randy Russell, S (medical hardship)

WHY UF LOST TO AUBURN: 4-20 ON 3-POINTERS

For the Florida Gators (12-10, 4-5 SEC) to knock off Auburn on the road Tuesday night, it was going to take a decent night from the 3-point line. Well, it didn’t happen. Florida shot 4-20 (20%) on the long ball while Auburn hit 9-25, hence a 76-62 loss for the Gators that saw them dip below .500 in SEC play. When the Gators can’t find the ocean from the end of the pier on 3-pointers and they’re outscored by 15 points beyond the arc, you can all but chalk it up as a loss.

Florida’s difficulties extended beyond bad shooting. The Gators turned the ball over 17 times which Auburn turned into 19 points. The Tigers, who won their third consecutive game, shot 48.1% while protecting the basketball. Auburn was forced into only 10 turnovers.

Kevarrius Hayes scored 11 points to lead UF while KeVaughn Allen and Noah Locke each scored 10. Keyontae Johnson scored 7 points and grabbed a game-high 10 rebounds.

Tuesday’s SEC games
#1 Tennessee (21-1, 9-0 SEC) 72, Missouri (11-10, 2-7 SEC) 60
#5 Kentucky (19-3, 8-1 SEC) 76, South Carolina (11-11, 6-3 SEC) 48
Auburn (16-6, 5-4 SEC) 76, FLORIDA (12-10, 4-5 SEC) 62
Arkansas (14-8, 5-4 SEC) 69, Vanderbilt (9-13, 0-9 SEC) 66

Wednesday’s SEC games
#21 LSU (17-4, 7-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (16-5, 4-4 SEC)
Texas A&M (8-12, 1-7 SEC) at Ole Miss (14-7, 4-4 SEC)
Georgia (10-11, 1-7 SEC) at Alabama (13-8, 4-4 SEC)

SEC FOOTBALL STUFF: Georgia 4-star quarterback commitment John Rhys Plumlee (6-1, 185, Hattiesburg, MS Oak Grove) has flipped and will sign with Ole Miss today. He is the nation’s 13th-ranked dual threat quarterback … Texas governor Greg Abbott wants to help restore the annual Texas-Texas A&M football game, which hasn’t been played since 2011. The rivalry game ended when the Aggies left the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference beginning with the 2012 season … New running backs coach Cadillac Williams has a two-year deal worth $325,000 a year with Auburn … 4-star defensive tackle Jahkeem Green (6-4, 300, Sumter, SC/Highland, KS Highland Community College) is not expected to be signing with South Carolina today. He has an offer from Tennessee, but no matter who he signs with, he’s got work to do to qualify … Alabama backup DE/LB Eyabi Anoma has entered his name in the NCAA transfer portal. Only a freshman, Anoma will likely be required to sit out the 2019 season wherever he lands … Missouri backup quarterback Micah Wilson, who has appeared in six games the last two seasons, is planning to switch to wide receiver for the 2019 season.

RANDOM THOUGHTS: Former Ole Miss basketball coach Andy Kennedy has been exceptional in the studio for SEC Network. He showed Tuesday night in the South Carolina-Kentucky broadcast that he’s the network’s best color analyst … Quarterbacks coach Pep Hamilton will not return to Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan staff … Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown was involved in a domestic dispute in January according to a police report from Hollywood, Florida … Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa won his arbitration case Tuesday. He’ll be paid $5 million in 2019. The Astros were offering $4.25 million … Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Tommy Pham won his arbitration case. The Rays will pay him $4.1 million. They offered $3.5 million … Nick Foles is voiding his $20 million option for 2019 with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are expected to put a franchise tag on him and then trade him. There are a lot of NFL teams that could use Foles. Are you listening Jacksonville? … North Carolina State scored only 24 points Saturday in a loss to Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack scored 96 Tuesday night. It didn’t help. North Carolina beat NC State 113-96.